Treasury secretary Scott Bessent says Iran “miscalculated” Gulf attacks and predicts sharp fall in oil prices once conflict ends

When tensions rise in the Middle East, oil prices usually follow. That’s exactly what’s happening again after recent attacks in the Gulf, with markets reacting quickly to uncertainty around supply and shipping routes. But while prices have jumped in the short term, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pointing in a very different direction for what comes next.

Instead of expecting long-term price spikes, Bessent says the situation may actually lead to lower oil prices once things settle down. His comments are getting attention because they push back against the idea that this conflict will keep energy costs high for an extended period.

Why Bessent Says Iran “Miscalculated”

Bessent argued that Iran’s actions in the Gulf may have backfired strategically. By escalating attacks on ships and energy-related targets, he suggested Iran may have triggered a stronger international response than expected.

He also pointed out that some regional countries have cooperated more closely with the U.S. after the attacks. From his perspective, that kind of reaction could make it harder for Iran to maintain leverage in the situation moving forward.

What’s Driving Oil Prices Right Now

In the short term, oil prices have risen sharply as markets react to the risk of disrupted supply. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping routes for global oil, so any threat to it tends to push prices higher quickly. 

Recent reports of attacks and military responses in the region have added to that uncertainty. Even the possibility of reduced flow through the Gulf is enough to make traders cautious, which is why prices have been moving so fast.

Why Prices Could Fall After the Conflict

Despite the current spike, Bessent says the long-term outlook could look very different. He pointed to the amount of oil waiting to enter the market and suggested that supply could increase once tensions ease.

There’s also the possibility of policy changes, like easing restrictions on certain oil shipments, which could quickly add more supply. If that happens, it could put downward pressure on prices once the immediate risk fades.

The Bigger Question Going Forward

Right now, the biggest unknown is how long the conflict will last and how much it will disrupt global supply. Some analysts believe prices could stay elevated if the situation drags on or worsens.

At the same time, others are watching for signs that production and shipping could return to normal relatively quickly. If that happens, it would support the idea that today’s price spike is temporary rather than a lasting shift.

Why This Matters Beyond the Oil Market

Oil prices don’t just affect energy companies — they influence gas prices, shipping costs, and the overall economy. That’s why comments like Bessent’s get so much attention.

If he’s right, it could mean that the current surge is more of a short-term reaction than a long-term problem. But until the situation in the Gulf becomes clearer, markets are likely to stay on edge.